CRUDE OIL: A TIGHT SPOT WITH POTENTIALLY VOLATILE CONSEQUENCES
A bit of history first:
On November 25th, with crude sitting around $88, I posted a bit of analysis titled "Crude Oil Warming Jets For A Run Into Triple Digits." The basis of the analysis was that crude would again be attracted to its overhead trajectory after finding support at its lower trajectory point.
On February 3rd, after crude oil touched the upside trajectory point almost precisely, I posted an updated chart with a price target for crude at $90 over the next couple of months.
While crude oil has been relatively easy to predict based on its transparency in intention, expressed through adherence to its trajectory points, that trend may now be in the process of changing. The trajectory points that have dictated the path of crude for some years now are beginning to pinch. With that pinching action comes the demand that crude oil remains tame if it wants to continue adherence to these tested indicators of price. Unfortunately, crude oil and tame do not typically do well together under most circumstances.
Here is an updated analysis. Below you will find the weekly chart of crude showing the long-term influence of both trajectory points I have been referencing. Next is the daily chart with a shorter-term look.
click chart to enlarge
CRUDE (WEEKLY)
CRUDE (DAILY)
