Concrete Below

You know the market has become a get what you want, free for fall when even the "me too" names are stuffing the pockets of investors. Generally speaking, there is a sub-group of popular names in every market cycle that investors pile into primarily because they are 1) popular 2) they have lagged the leaders. They are comfortable to buy because they haven't really moved. It feels right...and feeling right is typically wrong in speculation.

The markets force investors to chase leaders for a reason. FB, GOOG, NFLX have been forcing investors into uncomfortable buying decisions for years now as they ascend an ever steepening ladder. They are bull market leaders. You have to pay a premium to participate. It hasn't felt "easy" to buy any of the market leaders for sometime now. They inherently force decisions that suck for investors because you feel the rug can be pulled under you at any moment.

Comfortable buying decisions on the other hand are not rewarded in normal market conditions. So when you see names like TWTR moving up, which has been a darling of investors seeking a comfortable way to play growth, there is a certain skepticism that should greet the move.

The skepticism isn't a judgement on the company in one way or another. Rather, it is a judgement on the market for essentially giving up gains to anybody that walks by. More specifically, it's a judgement on the market cycle and where we are within it.

This isn't the safe, cushion laden buying environment of a few years ago. It is a different beast entirely. There are no cushions. Only hard concrete below. Beware.

Author: admin

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