Pay Attention To The Details
We went to cash today. Sold NFLX and RBLX last week. TQQQ today. All of these positions did stellar over the week that we held them and will continue to do so into year end. However, this week in particular is where the bears have their last shot at making a statement. They will likely use mega-cap tech earnings as an excuse to do so before the Fed next week and the elections the week after ruin their party. The market is giving hints of what is to come. Per the usual, it is all reflected in price. Here is the S&P: It's the subtle clues that are often the most powerful. Not closing over 3800 today was one such clue. Putting together a spirited rally and closing barely more than 1% over last Tuesday's closing high (last week's high) is another. The market used a lot of energy to bounce from the support you see between 3600-3700. There should have been more oomph! by now. And it doesn't help that the NDX is staring right into significant resistance after the effort to rally over the past week: All of this makes for a market that will more than likely pullback into the end of this week. One more reset is needed before moving above 4000. To be absolutely, unequivocally clear....this does not change my intermediate term call of a market that is headed much higher into year end. Be patient with the market this week. There are still kinks to be ironed out. Earnings will be the excuse to do the dirty work. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or...
Weekly Note Preview: All The Data Demonstrating Why This Past Week’s Price Action Creates A Bullish Tailwind Into Month End
In this weekend's 306th edition of Turning Points we have 15 pages reviewing all the data pointing to this past week being the spot to get long given the bullish tailwinds ahead. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future performance....
Weekly Note Preview: A Period of Adjustments; 4 Charts Demonstrating How Important Current Levels Are For The Markets; Outlook For The Week Ahead
In this weekend's 302nd edition of Turning Points we review the adjustments necessary to remain profitable in the current market environment. We look at the key levels that the market is currently testing as well as the outlook for the week ahead. As we move deeper into bear market territory there are a number of adjustments that are necessary. We made the first adjustment on the first day of September, dumping our portfolio of long positions prior to what turned out to be the worst September for the markets since 2002. Since then we have been profitable in trading short-term swings from the long and short side, a practice that I don't see us changing anytime soon given the current market environment. The adjustments that are necessary don't simply stop at trading. There are adjustments that need to be made to the analysis I present, assuming the markets remain in the same condition they are in at present. What transpires during bear markets as they continue to push forward is an invalidation of every single truth that investors hold near and dear to their hearts. This goes for both fundamental and technical data. Fundamental data always lags, making it impossible to pinpoint market bottoms during a bear market utilizing any economic reports, earnings, macro factors or otherwise. There is no magic level for yields, the CPI or even Fed action to spot an absolute bottom during a bear market. Given that so many investors are clinging onto the “once the Fed resumes QE, markets will soar” thesis, we can assume that once they do resume QE, whether next month or next year, the markets will react in a much different manner than they did in March 2020 onward. The fact of the matter is that faith in central banking as an economically viable practice with consistent outcomes is being heavily tarnished in the current environment. I can imagine a scenario with the next round of inevitable QE where the Fed will underestimate the amount necessary to create an impact, as investors have become desensitized to large numbers with respect to QE. It will take them weeks or months to right the ship. There is no magic bullet with fundamental data or the Fed at this juncture of the downtrend. Technicals are a bit more complicated. There are pockets of technical data that can prove invaluable when it comes to getting the general vicinity of an important bottom right. However, a majority of the technical data investors will cling onto, should this bear market progress further downward, doesn't only become useless but harmful to investors as false signals are produced...