Here Is Why We Are In the Midst Of The Most Important Market Move of 2023, With An Even More Critical Move Being Imminent
Here is the chart of the NDX as it accelerates away from a near 30 year trajectory (in white) that has acted as critical support/resistance for what has basically been a majority of the life of the Nasdaq 100 as an index. It has been a year now since the Nasdaq has been consolidating in, around, over and under the the key resistance point that we just blew away this week. The Nasdaq further confirmed the legitimacy of the move by exceeding the critical 13720 level. Why 13720? It was the August 2022 peak. That August peak ushered in a whole new regime of inflationary worries with further uncertainty about how long the Fed would continue their rate hiking campaign. This has been resolved as of today. The move we have seen in the Nasdaq this week is the most important technical move of 2023 to date. There is, however, a level upcoming on the S&P 500 that is even more critical than the 30 year trajectory on the Nasdaq 100. The red trajectory that currently sits at 4350 for the SPX is important for multiple reasons. First, it has been a key point of contention for the market for all of 2023. In fact, the technical reversal at the February highs off of this key technical level was why we went bearish at that those highs until the end of March when we switched back to the bull side. Secondly, exceeding the red trajectory puts the SPX in the midst of a series of key technical levels that will be prove to be a real test for the market. How it treats this impending test will give us a ton of price data revealing the strength and voracity of this baby bull run. Third, the first step to new all-time highs for the S&P begins at 4350. Not many technicians, if any at all, realize this fact. For this reason, accurately gauging how the market reacts to the 4350 level will be a huge advantage for those who interpret the markets correctly from there. We are presently in the midst of the first consequential set of price moves for 2023. In fact, what we are experiencing presently is the first set of consequential market moves not just for 2023, but since the middle of 2022, as well. The stakes have been raised considerably. Interpret what you see from this point forward wisely. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. ...
New Edition of Zenolytics Turning Points Is Out: A Discussion Of Why Today’s Move In the Nasdaq Is Not One To Be Ignored, Along With Analysis of Additions To Positions & A New Position To Be Taken At The Open Tomorrow
In this 347th edition of Turning Points a discussion of why today's move in the Nasdaq is not one to be ignored, along with analysis of additions to positions taken during the trading day and a new position to be taken at the open tomorrow. It's important to listen to what the market is saying here while ignoring every other piece of seemingly critical information. The critical pieces of information are primarily in the form of fundamental news flow that mostly paints a picture of severe doom and gloom in one form or another. Whether geopolitics based, recession based, inflation based or otherwise, there is no shortage of hooks to hang your hat on if you choose to be bearish right now. However, what the market has been telling us for most of 2023 is in stark contrast to all the bearish narratives that exist. The confusion lies in the fact that, at least for now, the heavy lifting for the market has mostly been done by a select few mega-cap tech stocks. This may be in the process of changing with today's breakout for the Nasdaq. To view the entirety of this note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital...
345th Edition Of Turning Points Preview: Portfolio Restructuring Time
In this 345th edition of Turning Points a review of why we went to 100% cash today along with profiling a new position being opened tomorrow morning. We were awarded a pretty good spot today to take some profits, which I decided was much too attractive an opportunity to pass up. To be clear, the current call is nothing like the early February call to not only exit all of our longs but get short over the next 1-2 months. Technically, other than the fact I was confident that the markets would retrace the gap up today, nothing really stood out. The SPX is up 0.03% for the week thus far. Another sideways affair, in other words. I can see some market shenanigans taking place over the next several trading days. I can also see a scenario where the market does breakout, but then retraces the gains. In either case, in 2023 to date, protecting profits at every turn has been the correct decision. I don't see this time as being different. The benefit that we have is the ability to get into a new group of risk/reward opportunities that will provide an improved risk profile while allowing us to participate in further upside, if the market chooses to continue its move up. Resetting a portfolio (moving to a large or 100% cash position) for short to intermediate term traders is a highly underrated tactic. First, it allows a trader to view the market without bias, enhancing one's ability to make optimal decisions at critical junctures. Second, it forces one to seek new opportunities that often have better risk profiles than names that have run 30, 50 or 100 percent. Third, it allows for agility in a portfolio, while creating the habit of being flexible in one's views. The biggest losses come after a good run, while getting attached to specific thesis or a group of positions. Where we are currently in the market is in a 3-5 day period where conditions can get volatile in both directions. Rather than sitting around, hoping for the best, the decision was made today to reset and reallocate....small at first. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions and individual investors have come to depend on our service through each and every type of market environment. Click here for details. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website...
Weekly Note Preview: The Classic Wall Of Worry That Has Developed; Significant Breakouts Taking Place In Mega-Cap Tech After Earnings; A New Crypto Related Position Added To The Portfolio
In this weekend's 344th edition of Turning Points we have a 12 page note detailing the classic wall of worry that is allowing this market to remain buoyant in the face of countless concerns; we discuss the numerous breakouts above key resistance that have taken place in mega-cap tech following Q1 earnings; highlighting the strongest sectors in the market along with the best way to participate; adding a new crypto related position to the portfolios that is on the verge of a significant breakout. The abundance of reasons to be bearish is one of the key factors that is keeping the markets so well intact, allowing for opportunities on the long side to take place. These bearish factors are also what is creating the tailwind in precious metals and crypto during 2023 as investors are seeking any kind of safety net to cushion the fall in case of the above described Armageddon scenario. While we dance around the chemical fire that has become the current economy, megacap tech companies are becoming more powerful than world governments as they continue to print money unabated. As discussed in recent editions of Turning Points, AAPL's price action was telling us that an earnings disappointment was a low probability scenario. We see now why AAPL was resting above resistance going into earning s with very little overall downside volatility. Earnings were better than expected, creating a nice move above resistance targeting new all-time highs over the intermediate term. Everything about the earnings move was perfect. From the way it moved above resistance, finally confirming that the move above trajectory was real. All the way to to volume, which wasn't overly euphoric or “blowoffish” in nature. AAPL's price action post earnings isn't delivering an overly- bullish message at all. What it is delivering is a message that downside is relatively non-existent unless some sort of black swan appears. In the current market structure, AAPL will slowly grind up providing resilience for the overall tech market. Here we have MSFT in what could be a preview of what AAPL will do a week after earnings. MSFT reported a week before AAPL. Since then it was simply held its gap and continued along on moderate volume, accelerating up and away from resistance that now becomes support. In last weekend's edition of Turning Points I discussed a 315-320 price target over the short-term for MSFT. It looks like we will get there this week. To view the entirety of this weekend's note, you can subscribe by clicking here. Zenolytics Turning Points is 300+ editions in and only getting better. Find out why institutions...