Here Is The Trading Plan For The Rest Of The Week Following Today’s Volatility
CPI and PPI are huge this week. However, after Friday's employment number, the bar for economic reports has been raised. This means that investors are that much more prone to nit picking at Wednesday's CPI than they would have been had the employment number not come in at more than double expectations. At most, this is a short-term crosswind. I wouldn't dare to say its a headwind, at this point, due to the fact that the bids in the market remain constant. Now let's say the CPI also blows away expectations, signaling that inflation is still going strong, while jobs growth is through the roof. This brings back the 100 basis point rate hike demon that haunted the market for a few days in late July. That'll be it, however. There is enough potential for inflation data mitigation, showing both inflation slowing and the economy not being as vibrant as the jobs report suggests that a selloff on investors being overly-sensitive about the CPI should be bought. And this is the point I want to make tonight. Investors are in their feelings. CPI has to be perfect. Otherwise, we selloff from Wednesday into Friday. With the technical setup being as it is after today, the odds are 70/30 to possibly 80/20 in favor of further slippage after the data. Here is the S&P 500: By no means horrible. However, you can see that the S&P has decided to stop right at resistance, while it waits for a green light to move further up. Market shenanigans have to be expected in such a scenario according to the gospel of trading 2022's inflation driven, Fed obsessed, maniacal market. A move to 4050 this week is a hand over fist buying opportunity. Everyone will be shorting or liquidating down there expecting sub-4000 to be imminent. That's where we take on further aggressive risk in high growth, with a sprinkle of alt crypto names thrown in for good measure. Give it time. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in...
The Two Most Important Charts For The Week Ahead After That Weird Jobs Report
Coincidentally or perhaps not, the weird jobs report from Friday happened to hit just as we are sitting at these levels. CPI and PPI data have just become amplified by a significant degree on Wednesday and Thursday following Friday's surprise. Traders need to take note of this amplification both after AND before the release of this data. I spent a majority of this weekend's Zenolytics Turning Points note discussing these levels and what to expect for the remainder of August after Friday's report. It's going to be a helluva week. Strap in. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither our information providers nor we shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of timeliness of, or for any delay or interruption in, the transmission thereof to the user. With respect to information regarding financial performance, nothing on this website should be interpreted as a statement or implication that past results are an indication of future...
There Are Continuation Patterns and Then There Is This
Patterns like this are popping up everywhere. I'm showing the major market averages here, but individual growth names are demonstrating identical traits. Here is the S&P: S&P 500 moving into resistance after a stiff rally. Contraction at resistance is a classic continuation signal. So is almost nobody thinking this can continue. You have two camps right now: Market is going lower/Market is going sideways. The "market is going to keep going" camp is nearly non-existent. In the meantime, price action is butting heads with the popular perception that this can't last. Price action wins in this scenario. Next up the NDX: Same thing with the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq 100 just plowed through resistance and followed up with a range contraction, basically coiling over the very short-term above resistance prior to its next leg. When will that next leg come? It could be tomorrow with the jobs report. It will assuredly be by next week, barring some type of geopolitical surprise, involving missiles and violent dictators. This market has left EVERYBODY behind. It won't relent until they believe that this is the next coming. Until they are foaming at the mouth to buy stocks. We are long ways from that eventuality. Enjoy the ride. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Neither...
This Is The Most Important Chart Today
Shouldn't be a surprise to any of you who have been following the story line closely. The Nasdaq put in an extremely standard two day recognition of resistance at 13100 on Monday and Tuesday. And what does it do today? It takes out resistance in the most devilish way possible, by gapping up near the highs of the past two days, not even thinking of looking back the entire day. These subtle or not so subtle (depending on how you look at price) demonstrations of manipulation tell a very important story. That story is one of TIME. The markets are telling us that they want to ascend in as fast a manner as possible. In order to do that, they don't have time to punish investors with multi-day down days that typically act as rinses for the next leg. Instead, they have to punish investors with ultra-short term deception that fulfills the minimum price manipulation requirement in the minimum amount of time. We see now that the Nasdaq has cleared resistance, on its way to 14000+ during August, which is a level I have been speaking of for some weeks now as the upside target in the short-term. The time it takes to get to 14000 and how it handles this key level will tell us a lot about how much further we have to go. My guess is that the answer will be....a lot further. Stay tuned. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement...
The Great Unwinding Has Arrived
Too many remain in the bear market rally camp while stuff like this is popping up everywhere. Below is a chart of ARKK demonstrating the perfect base in terms of price and volume following an absolute monstrosity of a correction, bordering on a downright blowup. We have investors remaining bearish into price and volume patterns that look like this. And it's not a small contingent, it's the absolute majority of investors. It's not just ARKK that looks like this in growth land. There are bottoming patterns that have popped up everywhere, with price following through confirming that we are in one of those special periods that only come around once every couple years. Think March 2020, when I was shouting from the rafters to go all in on stocks. Think December 2018, when I was begging investors to buy technology. These were also spots where nearly everyone got it wrong. Popular wisdom failed. Pseudo-analysts and technicians ran studies and developed correlations that had no relevance to the situation at the time. This is March 2020. This is December 2018. The only difference is that we are now in a bull market has matured to the point where each and every successive rally that occurs from spots like this will be orders of magnitude greater than the last. The Great Unwinding has arrived. Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information contained herein as personalized advice from T11 Capital Management LLC. Visitors should discuss the personal applicability of the specific products, services, strategies, or issues posted herein with a professional advisor of his or her choosing. Information throughout this site, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statement or statements regarding capital markets or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our...
Quick Thoughts
- The nature of price action has changed. Everyone has missed it. - Bidders have become persistent in their demand for growth names for the first time since the 2021 market top. - Anyone labeling this as a bear market rally doesn't understand market cycles, specifically, as it relates to the nature of secular bull markets. - As secular bull markets rise so does the volatility as more participants jump on the train, causing it to sway in a much more dramatic nature than when there were only a few onboard. - I expect the volatility in 2022, when all is said and done, to be nothing short of shocking, with the upside that is to come being the more shocking aspect of it. - There is a good possibility that everything we consider as facts, whether inflation, Fed intentions or growth in economy related is completely wrong. This will become apparent in the next 6-9 months. - If you believe a recession is coming in 2023, then every single bear will need to be annihilated before prices for equities succumb to the effects of negative growth. - In order to get every single bear to capitulate, prices well above S&P 5000 are required. And when I say well above, I mean WELL above. - Alt crypto names are beginning to put in some fantastic bottoming patterns, I will be covering these in the weekly report. - Select software names are also beginning to put in patterns that look like 100% gainers through 2023. I will be covering this in the weekly report, as well. - The NDX will be hitting 14000 in August. sss - They scoffed when I Tweeted this in June Disclaimer This website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a complete description of our investment advisory services. No information contained on this website constitutes investment advice. This website should not be considered a solicitation, offer or recommendation for the purchase or sale of any securities or other financial products and services discussed herein. Viewers of this website will not be considered clients of T11 Capital Management LLC just by virtue of access to this website. T11 Capital Management LLC only conducts business in jurisdictions where licensed, registered, or where an applicable registration exemption or exclusion exists. Information contained herein is not intended for persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to the laws or regulations of that jurisdiction, or which would subject T11 Capital Management LLC to any unintended registration requirements. Visitors to this site should not construe any discussion or information...