In this weekend's 409th edition of Turning Points we have an 11 page note discussing the continued perfect price structure taking place in the major indices; investors embracing pessimism at the first sign of danger; timing of a short-term peak; macro and micro catalysts in the week ahead; a new Aggressive Bull portfolio position; crypto strategy for the months ahead.
What follows is a brief preview from this weekend's note:
In the midst of perpetual doubt brought on by the grief suffered at the hands of sadistic market action from January 2022 all the way until October 2023, the markets have spontaneously put together one of the greatest rallies in history.
Despite the markets vehemently expressing to investors that they have suddenly been injected with a sense of vitality and optimism, investors remain skeptical, unable to shake off the trauma suffered in years past.
When looking at the 20 day moving average of the equity put/call ratio we see that despite a record setting rally, the appetite for puts at the first sign of distress remains unusually high.
In terms of overall investor psychology, not only is it the case that optimism is yet to be found, but there is a distinct sense of dread pervading price action.
Markets that have investors feeling especially comfortable do not experience anomalous pessimism spikes in the put/call ratio as we observed just a few weeks ago.
In the face of what has become a perpetual cycle of pessimism, the price action continues to tell a different story than the bearishness investors seem to be overly anxious to embrace.
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